Landslide risk assessment analysis using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Most slope analyse are based on traditional method approach which adopts average valued design parameter are adopted. Consequently, the method yields the single valued estimate of slope stability. The factor of safety approach cannot quantify the probabilities of the failure or level risk associated with a particular design situation because due to the uncertainty exist in the soil. The analysis of the slope stability can be more accurately evaluated through the use of the probabilistic analysis. The analytical method uses the information about the probability distribution of the slope characteristic to determine the probability distribution of the output of the analysis. The objective of the research is to determine the probabilities of slope failure based on a given field study and study effect of statistical parameters in result calculation of failure. Monte Carlo simulation is useful for modelling an attribute that cannot be sampled or measured directly, but can be expressed as a mathematical function of properties that can be sampled. Factor of safety also fits this situation. The methodology of this research is based on the previous relevant papers and journals. The data is collected from the case study of the slope at Majlis Peperiksaan Malaysia, Selayang, Selangor based on the lab report and simulated with SLOPE/W software program. The result deterministic method is 1.184, while for the probability of the slope failure is equal to 9.49%. This is due to low uncertainty in the soil properties. The study also found that the higher the uncertainty of the soil properties of the soil, the higher chance the slope to fail.