Projection of thermal bioclimate of Egypt for the Paris agreement goals

Abstract

This paper presents the likely changes in the thermal bioclimate of Egypt under the Paris Agreement, which aimed to restrict global warming to increase by 1.5–2.0 °C. A mean multi-model ensemble (MME) of eight global climate models were employed to evaluate the two shared socioeconomic paths (SSP) scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, which indicated scenarios for 1.5 and 2.0 °C rates of warming, respectively. The spatial distribution of the observed bioclimate indicated higher values in the south and southeast regions. The findings showed that there was an increase in Egypt’s mean temperature by rates of 1.3 and 1.5 °C for SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, respectively, with a higher increase in the southeast. The SSP1-2.6 scenario showed a gradual temperature rise with time, while SSP1-1.9 projected a decrease in the far future. The daily temperature variation decreased in the same region, but this effect was amplified in the north by 0.2 °C. The seasonality decreased by −0.8 to −2.3% without any shift in isothermality. The maximum summer temperature increased more (1.3–2.2 °C) than the minimum winter temperature (0.9–1.5 °C), causing an increase in inter-seasonal variability. Most bioclimatic indicators more rapidly rose in the north and northeast regions of Egypt, according to the geographical distribution of their projections.