Detecting rainfall trend and development of future intensity duration frequency (IDF) curve for the state of Kelantan

Abstract

Due to global warming, the existing IDF curves that were derived from historical data may no longer valid for estimating future rainfall. On the other hand, the alternative future rainfall data generated from Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) cannot be used directly due to systematic biases caused by non-inclusion of local features. Quantile mapping was used to bias correct the rainfall data generated by CCSM3 model based on the properties of observed rainfall. Only 4 out of 16 stations in the state of Kelantan have shown an increasing significant trend for 1-h annual maximum rainfall. The best transfer function used to correct bias in CCSM3 data is the second order polynomial function. The quantile mapping for bias correction is satisfactory as the highest RMSE was only 4.045, a reduction by 15% compared to the original CCSM3 data. Subsequently, a unique transfer function was developed to represent the behavior of CCSM3 and observed data for each station. The future intensity was found to increase for short and medium return periods of 2-, 5-, 10- and 25-year, where most of the stations have Climate Change Factor (CCF) larger than 1. On the contrary, for a longer return period of 50- and 100-year, the intensities are predicted to be lower.