Geospatial modelling of urban growth for sustainable development in the Niger Delta Region, Nigeria

Abstract

Urban land expansion usually alters land-cover status, which may indirectly affect the physical environment. Understanding the extent of its effects is usually estimated using geospatial techniques. In this study, urban landscape’s changes between 1985 and 2015 were analysed through some selected spatial metrics in Niger Delta, Nigeria. In addition, we incorporated sustainable urban development goals in projecting the future urban expansion to observe their impact in this rapidly urbanizing region with a total area of 109,281.30 km 2 . A Cellular Automata/Markov Chain (CA-Markov) model was used to project the year 2030 land cover of the region using two scenarios: by considering existing settlements as the only constraints and by combining them with some selected United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) constraints (forest reserves, population, and economy). Comparing the two scenarios, the projected land-cover changes under the first scenario resulted in net loss and gains of −7.37%, 11.84%, and 50.88%, while the second scenario produced net loss and gains of −4.72%, 7.43%, and 48.37% in forest, farmland, and built-up area between 2015 and 2030, respectively. The difference between the two scenarios showed that strict adherence to the UN SDGs will reduce tropical deforestation in Niger Delta or similar region.