Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Institutional Repository

High-resolution climate projections for a densely populated mediterranean region

Nashwan, Mohamed Salem and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Chung, Eun-Sung (2020) High-resolution climate projections for a densely populated mediterranean region. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12 (9). p. 3684. ISSN 2071-1050

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12093684

Abstract

The present study projected future climate change for the densely populated Central North region of Egypt (CNE) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and two futures (near future: 2020-2059, and far future: 2060-2099), estimated by a credible subset of five global climate models (GCMs). Different bias correction models have been applied to correct the bias in the five interpolated GCMs' outputs onto a high-resolution horizontal grid. The 0.05° CNE datasets of maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmx, and Tmn, respectively) and the 0.1° African Rainfall Climatology (ARC2) datasets represented the historical climate. The evaluation of bias correction methodologies revealed the better performance of linear and variance scaling for correcting the rainfall and temperature GCMs' outputs, respectively. They were used to transfer the correction factor to the projections. The five statistically bias-corrected climate projections presented the uncertainty range in the future change in the climate of CNE. The rainfall is expected to increase in the near future but drastically decrease in the far future. The Tmx and Tmn are projected to increase in both future periods reaching nearly a maximum of 5.50 and 8.50 °C for Tmx and Tmn, respectively. These findings highlighted the severe consequence of climate change on the socio-economic activities in the CNE aiming for better sustainable development.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Downscaling, Egypt
Subjects:T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:Civil Engineering
ID Code:87301
Deposited By: Widya Wahid
Deposited On:31 Oct 2020 12:29
Last Modified:31 Oct 2020 12:29

Repository Staff Only: item control page