Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a statistical-based model to forecast future domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development in Yellow River. Design/methodology/approach: The model is developed through the analysis of the effects of climate variables and population on domestic water use in eight sub-basins of the Yellow River. The model is then used to forecast water demand under different environment change scenarios. Findings: The model projected an increase in domestic water demand in the Yellow River basin in the range of 67.85 × 108 to 62.20 × 108 m3 in year 2020 and between 73.32 × 108 and 89.27 × 108 m3 in year 2030. The general circulation model Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) predicted the highest increase in water demand in both 2020 and 2030, while Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Climate Model v.5 (CNRM-CM5) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System (MIROC-ESM) projected the lowest increase in demand in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The fastest growth in water demand is found in the region where water demand is already very high, which may cause serious water shortage and conflicts among water users. Originality/value: The simple regression-based domestic water demand model proposed in the study can be used for rapid evaluation of possible changes in domestic water demand due to environmental changes to aid in adaptation and mitigation planning.