Impacts of climate variability and changes on domestic water use in the Yellow River Basin of China

Abstract

We present a methodology for using a domestic water use time series that were obtained from Yellow River Conservancy Commission, together with the climatic records from the National Climate Center of China to evaluate the effects of climate variability on water use in the Yellow River Basin. A suit of seven Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were adopted to anticipate future climate patterns in the Yellow River. The historical records showed evidences of rises in temperature and subsequent rises in domestic water demand in the basin. For Upstream of Longyangxia region, the impact was the least, with only 0.0021 × 108 m3 for a temperature increase of 1 °C; while for Longyangxia-Lanzhou region, domestic water use was found to increase to 0.18 × 108 m3 when temperature increases 1 °C. Downstream of Huayuankou was the region with the most changes in temperature that gave the highest increase of 1.95 × 108 m3 in domestic water demand for 1 °C of change of temperature. Downstream of Huayuankou was identified as the most vulnerable area, where domestic water demand increases nearly by 42.2 % with 1 °C increase of temperature. Judging from the trends of temperature range, we concluded that future temperature in Yellow River Basin has an increasing tendency. This could worsen the existing issues of domestic water demand and even more to trigger high competition among different water-using sectors.