Potential impact of climate change on future water demand in Yulin city, Northwest China

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to assess the impacts of climate change, population growth and economic development on water demand of Yulin city located in Shaanxi Province of northwest China by using system dynamics approach. Total water consumption is divided into different sectors following the technical specification used for the analysis of water supply and demand balance in China. Water demand in each sector is modeled separately to compute the total water demand. System dynamics models for water demand forecasting are developed by considering the environmental (water quality, ecosystem preservation) and socio-economic (population growth, water consumption, policy and management) factors of regional water demand, and their nonlinear interactions with the physical elements of hydrological processes (natural runoff, groundwater recharge). The model is calibrated by using historical data and then applied for forecasting water demand in Yulin city under projected changes in climate, population, and economy. The study reveals that total water demand in Yulin city will increase from approximately 710million-m3 in 2010 to more than 1480million-m3 in 2030. Total water demand under A1B scenario which lies near the high end of the spectrum for future greenhouse gas emissions will be 2.51million-m3 more compared to B1 scenario. This is due to the projection of higher temperature by A1B scenario. It is concluded that Yulin city should adopt water demand management strategy to achieve sustainability in water resources.