Detention pond sediment accumulation prediction using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Problem statement: A study in Malaysia had been carried out to predict the sediment accumulation in urban detention ponds. Suspended sediment is pollutant of primary concern to the river that results in adverse environmental effect. Detention pond becomes a practical approach to this problem. Suspended sediment that settled in stormwater detention pond, can bring effect to the detention pond functions. Questions were raised on how certain were the observed and predicted values of sediment depth and load accumulation estimations. Secondly the question was what the sediment accumulation be in the next 100 years. The uncertainties of sediments estimation vary greatly due to the hydrological variability and rainfall random nature obtain the relationship between flow discharge and suspended sediment rate using on-site data collection at UTM and Ledang Heights, Nusajaya. Predict accumulated sediment loads and depth from MUSLE over 10-100 years. Analyze the uncertainties of sediment loads and depth using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) combining normal distribution. Obtain the maximum probability of occurrence of sediment loads and depth in the detention pond. Approach: Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) and Trap Efficiency (TE) Method was applied to predict sediment accumulation.