Prediction of heat waves over Pakistan using support vector machine algorithm in the context of climate change

Abstract

Many efficient forecasting models have been found to fail or show low skill due to the changes in the predictor–predictand relationship with the changes in global climate. An attempt has been taken to develop a climate change resilient heatwave prediction model using machine learning (ML) algorithms known as Support Vector Machines (SVM), random forest and artificial neural network. The National Centres for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data of ocean-atmospheric variables were used as the predictors of ML models for forecasting the number of heatwave days (HWDs) in the summer of Pakistan. An SVM based recursive feature elimination method was used to select the skilful predictors. The ML models were developed by considering a moving window of 29 years with a time step of 5 years to incorporate the changes in the relation of HWDs with its predictors due to climate change. The result showed changes in the relationship of HWDs with all the ocean-atmospheric variables considered in this study as probable predictors, which indicates the necessity of forward-rolling approach proposed in this study for the development of climate change resilient forecasting model. The relative performance of ML showed the higher capability of SVM to predict HWDs with an %NRMSE of 36, R2 of 0.87, md score of 0.76 and an rSD of 0.88 during the validation period. The result revealed the potential of SVM model to be used for reliable forecasting of heatwaves in the context of climate change.