Historical trends in crop water demand over semiarid region of Syria

Abstract

Climate change has caused a shift in aridity, particularly in the world's dry regions, affecting several sectors, predominantly the agricultural and water resources. This research examined the climate change effects on crop water demand (CWD) in Syria during 1951-2010. Given the lack of observed data, this analysis relied on Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) precipitation and Climatic Research Unit (CRU) temperature. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) at each grid was estimated using the Penman-Monteith model and the CWD using the FAO-56 method. The analysis revealed that CWD in Syria increased during 1981 - 2010 compared to that during 1951 - 1980. The increase in CWD was found for grapes, tobacco, barley, and cotton, whereas the maximum changes were during April and May. The most remarkable changes in CWD were for barley, between -20 and 40 mm. It showed a decreased CWD in the south and a rise in the north (0 - 40 mm) The CWD for wheat showed a decline in most parts of the country, except in the north. The increase in CWD for barley and wheat caused an increase in agricultural water stress in the region. Agriculture planning needs to be developed according to the expected future climate changes to maintain the agricultural production in the region.