Effect of sea level rise on oil spill model drift using TELEMAC-2D

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious issue around the world that affects the hydrodynamic behaviour of river and coastal waters. This work presents the hydrodynamic pattern modelled for the region and prediction of oil spill spreading at Pulai River estuary and southwest Johor Strait before and after SLR phenomenon using TELEMAC-2D. The hydrodynamic calibration and validation were in good agreement between measured and modelled values. The mean absolute error (MAE) of water level is less than 3% and average difference in speed and direction of current is less than 10% and 30°, respectively. These values meet the impact evaluation assessment by the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID), which is less than 10% for water level and less than 30% and 45° for current speed and direction, respectively. Permanent service for mean sea level (PSMSL) analysis shows an increased water level of 0.35 m after SLR rise by year 2100. Currents also increase with the effect of SLR. At the Pulai River, the observed spill trajectory remains the same before and after SLR but in open seas, the affected oil spillage area at the anchorage zone is estimated to increase 28% after SLR compared to 2015. It is predicted that SLR increases water level, currents and oil spill spreading at open seas.