Comparative study on the reservoir operation planning with the climate change adaptation

Abstract

The management planning of Pedu–Muda reservoir, Kedah, was investigated in the context of the climate change evolution. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the climate change to the reservoir operating management system and its sustainability. The study was divided into two sections; Analysis 1 refers to the reservoir optimization adapted with the climate assessment. The statistical downscaling model reacted as the climate model to generate the long-term pattern of the local climates affected by the greenhouse gases. Analysis 2 refers to the reservoir optimization but excluded the climate changes assessment in the analyses. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm version II (NSGA-II) was applied in both analyses to optimize the water use due to the multi-objectives demand, maximizing water release, minimizing water shortage and maximizing reservoir storage. The formation of Pareto optimal solutions from both analyses was measured and compared. The results showed the Analysis 1 potential to produce consistence monthly flow with lesser error and higher correlation values. It also produced better Pareto optimal solution set and considered all the objectives demands. The NSGA-II also successfully improves and re-manages the reservoir storage efficiently and reduce the dependancy of these reservoirs.