Available transfer capability based on randomly generated probabilistic distribution function of wind speed using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Recent trend has focused on the importance of renewable energy resources in the electrical energy production system. Although a number of appealing advantages are expected, a large penetration of generation from renewable energy resources may cause some undesirable impact on system security and reliability due to the uncertainty of their generation output. One of the problems is the fluctuation character of wind energy where the output of wind power generation system is unpredictable due to the intermittent of wind speed. However, the probability of a particular wind speed occurring can be estimated. These can cause the output of a wind power plant is neither continuous nor controllable. Power system analysis should be able to cope with the influences resulting from the presence of this generation scheme. In this thesis, the influences of the integration of the renewable energy into power system via determination of Available Transfer Capability (ATC) are investigated. To calculate ATC incorporating wind generation, a power flow algorithm based on Newton-Raphson technique is used. The output of wind generation is determined by Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). The limits considered in this work are bus voltage limit and line thermal limit. Meanwhile the power output of a Wind Turbine Generation (WTG) is obtained using the relationship between the power output and the wind speed. To model wind speed, common wind speed is used in terms of the mean and standard deviation of the wind speed. The proposed method has been applied on 5-bus system and IEEE 30-bus system. The result shows the improvement of ATC value due to inclusion of wind energy into the power system. For 5-bus system, the improvement of ATC value is about 0.28-2.56%, while for IEEE 30-bus system the improvement is about 10-23.53%. The ATC value will increase based on the variation of power output of wind energy. Meanwhile, WTG will contribute to the increase of ATC based on the available wind profile to compliment the contribution of ATC from conventional generation.