Impact of climate change on rainfall over Kerian, Malaysia with Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARSWG)

Abstract

General circulation models (GCMs) have been widely used in the climate community, to generate the future climate variation based on the climate scenarios. However, the GCMs’ variables need to be downscaled into a fine resolution before they can be applied for the climate impact assessment. Therefore, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), which utilized the Stochastic Weather Generators, is applied. The catchment at Kerian, located at the state of Perak, Malaysia had been chosen as the case study. Based on the LARS-WG simulation result, the rainfall trend is not much different from the present. From January until April and December, the daily rainfall is expected to decrease continuously for every interval future period. From May until November, the decrease of future daily rainfall is expected to happen. The annual rainfall pattern illustrates that the annual rainfall intensity is concentrated on the area at the upper stream of river (Selama and Batu Kurau) and it is expected to increase continuously for every interval future period.