Relative influence of meteorological variables of human thermal stress in peninsular Malaysia

Abstract

Climate change has significantly increased human thermal stress, particularly in tropical regions, exacerbating associated risks and consequences, such as heat-related illnesses, decreased workability, and economic losses. Understanding the changes in human thermal stress and its drivers is crucial to identify adaptation measures. This study aims to assess various meteorological variables’ spatial and seasonal impact on Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), an indicator of human thermal stress, in Peninsular Malaysia. The Liljegren method is used to estimate WBGT using ERA5 hourly data from 1959 to the present. The trends in WBGT and its influencing factors are evaluated using a modified Mann-Kendall test to determine the region’s primary driver of WBGT change. The results indicate that air temperature influences WBGT the most, accounting for nearly 60% of the variation. Solar radiation contributes between 20% and 30% in different seasons. Relative humidity, zenith, and wind speed have relatively lesser impacts, ranging from −5% to 20%. Air temperature has the highest influence in the northern areas (>60%) and the lowest in the coastal regions (40%). On the other hand, solar radiation has the highest influence in the southern areas (20–40%) and the least in the north. The study also reveals a significant annual increase in temperature across all seasons, ranging from 0.06 to 0.24 °C. This rapid temperature rise in the study area region has led to a substantial increase in WBGT. The higher increase in WBGT occurred in the coastal regions, particularly densely populated western coastal regions, indicating potential implications for public health. These findings provide valuable insights into the factors driving WBGT and emphasize the importance of considering air temperature as a key variable when assessing heat stress.