Future changes in wind energy resources in Egypt under Paris climate agreements' goals

Abstract

The Paris climate agreements’ goals ambitiously aim to hold mean global warming below 2.0°C and to pursue efforts to limit the warming to 1.5°C. One of the effective strategies for achieving these goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector is using wind power. As Egypt is heavily investing in wind farm projects and planning to depend more on wind energy resources in its energy mix, it is important to assess the impact of climate change on its future wind energy production. This study employed eight global climate models of CMIP6 to project the wind power density (WPD) changes under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 1–1.9 and 1–2.6 that inform Paris climate agreements and SSP5–8.5 that present the extreme warming scenario. The results showed that the WPD would increase in most Egypt, except in the far southeast. Increases would be pronounced over the far western desert and in Winter compared to other seasons. Nevertheless, Summer and Fall shall have the highest WPD by the end of the century compared to the present. This is favorable because the seasonal WPD pattern is sufficient to meet the local energy need. Unlike the intra-annual variability, few changes were projected in the inter-annual variability of WPD. Furthermore, a shift towards stronger WPDs compared to the historical period was observed. This study’s results can be useful for energy policymakers and planners in managing wind energy production under climate change scenarios.