Modelling informal settlements expansion for sustainable urban development: a scientometric review.

Abstract

The number of formal and informal settlements in emerging economies has continued to rise due to urbanisation and other related factors. Hence, research studies on the rapid expansion, spatial analysis, and prediction of the evolution of informal settlements that utilise urban growth prediction models are critical to researchers and urban policymakers. The proliferation of informal settlements in metropolitan areas has increased urban complexity and uncontrolled spatial development, which hampers long-term and sustainable planning. Therefore, this paper employs the scientometric analysis and the scientific mapping approach to identify, screen, and review the literature on the modelling of informal settlements. The paper also seeks to enhance the understanding the urban growth modelling of the fundamentals and evolution of informal settlements for sustainable urban planning. Consequently, a scientometric review was conducted using the VOSViewer software and Scopus database to determine the state-of-art studies on informal settlement modelling. The data was retrieved from the Scopus database (from 1985 and 2020) using keywords from publications on urban growth models and informal settlement modelling. The study revealed that PLOS One and Habitat had the highest citation with South Africa as the most influential on informal settlement publication. Moreover, cellular automata urban growth model was revealed as the most commonly employed traditional urban growth model in both hybrid and single model applications. It further indicated a low interest in modelling of IFS using urban growth models and driving factors. The weaker association between the keyword (informal settlement and urban growth models) indicates low interest in publication regarding IFS modelling using urban growth models.