Differences in multi-model ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections for future droughts in South Korea

Abstract

This study quantified the uncertainties of future drought projections in the South Korea case by means of the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) of 10 GCM equivalents of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). Two meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 of CMIP5 and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 of CMIP6 were considered. The GCMs' performances for the historical period were evaluated, and their biases were corrected using quantile mapping. The multi-model ensemble (MME) means of the GCMs were generated using the entropy and TOPSIS methods. The results showed that the TOPSIS MME estimated more intense droughts than the entropy MME. The levels of SPI and SPEI severity estimated using the entropy MME were higher than those from the TOPSIS MME. The SPI and SPEI outcomes of RCP4.5 were much more robust than those of SSP2-4.5. The projected drought severity in the near future was much greater than in the far future, while the reliability of drought projections in the far future was much higher than in the near future. The reliability levels of drought projections for the SSP scenarios were higher than for the RCPs for most durations. This study can support planning and management of future droughts considering uncertainty variables.