Assessing the roles of human movement and vector vertical transmission on dengue fever spread and control in connected patches: from modelling to simulation

Abstract

In this work, a two-patch model featuring human, aquatic and adult mosquito populations to investigate the impact of host migration and vertical transmission in vector population on dengue disease transmission between two spatial locations is proposed. The model incorporates three patch-specific control measures, namely personal protection, larvicide and adulticide controls to gain insights into the effect of their combined efforts in curtailing the spatial spread of the disease in the connected locations. The effective reproductive number, RT, of the model is derived through the next-generation matrix method. Comparison theorem is used to prove the global asymptotic stability of the model. Qualitative analysis of the model reveals that the biologically realistic disease-free equilibrium is both locally and globally asymptotically stable when RT< 1 , and unstable otherwise. The simulated results indicate that vertical transmission in vector population impacts the dynamics of dengue in the population. Human movement between patches can also increase or decrease the disease prevalence in the population, and the disease burden can be reduced significantly, or even eliminated, in the interacting human and mosquito populations through the implementation of combined efforts of the three control interventions under consideration.