Pattern analysis of corona virus disease (COVID-19) - outbreak in Malaysia

Abstract

The ongoing Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak is now declared as the pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO). This disease began in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and is widely spread now all over the world. Progressively, Malaysia has been the leading country in Southeast Asia for this outbreak with cases more than 2000 as on 26th March 2020. This article highlights the analysis of the outbreak pattern which follows the exponential growth regression line. Data is collected daily for 66 days starting from the 1st case defined on 25th January 2020. Regression line is used because it can describe the relationship between predictors and the outcome within the datasets that can be used for prediction purposes. Fitting the real data to the graph, an equation which follows the exponential growth model is obtained. The calculation of the relative error between the exact and the approximate data shows that the pattern follows the exponential growth model as it is compared with the quadratic regression line. This analysis can be particularly beneficial for the health authorities in preparing immediate and effective strategies to flatten the curve. Malaysia government is currently working hard in flattening the curve by implementing Restricted Movement Order (RMO).