Pre-processing streamflow data through singular spectrum analysis with fuzzy C-means clustering

Abstract

One approach to improve water resource management is by making use of streamflow forecasts. In this study, eigenvector pairs were clustered by employing fuzzy c-means (FCM) during the grouping stage as an enhancement to the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) technique for data pre-processing. The FCM-SSA pre-processed streamflow data was then supplied to an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting. The Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia provided the monthly streamflow records of Sungai Muda (Jambatan Syed Omar) and Sungai Muda (Jeniang) for this research, wherein each was split into training (90%) and testing (10%) sets. The R software was the platform for building every FCM-SSA-ARIMA, SSA-ARIMA and ARIMA model, while the root mean squared errors and mean absolute errors were used to compare the performance between those models. The proposed FCM-SSA-ARIMA was discovered to be capable of surpassing the SSA-ARIMA and ARIMA models.