Analysis of coronavirus covid-19 pandemic model with discrete time delays

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic and its astronomic spread has become a huge threat to world health and economy. Different efforts are ongoing on the development of vaccines and drugs for COVID-19 treatment. However, the leading strategy to curtail the spread of the dis-eases has been various control measures which aim at breaking the chain of COVID-19 spread. In this work, we investigate the impact of government control measures and immune system strength on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Discrete delays are used to describe the restriction in social contacts due to government orders and the delay in infection manifestation due to immune response. The qualitative analysis of COVID-19 pandemic steady-state predict a stable state if COVID-19 latent period is negative and unstable state when the latent period is positive. The inclusion of delay in social contacts stabilizes the unstable pandemic steady-state when the infection is symptomatic and unstable when the infection is asymptomatic. Optimal strategy to flatten COVID-19 pandemic curve using social distance is also recommended.