Implication of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of Ebola virus disease transmission

Abstract

Ebola epidemic model threshold value indicates whether the disease will continue to spread in a population or not. However, the accurate value of this threshold is influenced by uncertainty in its parameters’ values which are marred by parameter estimation errors due to procedure, errors in data collection and underlying model assumptions. Understanding the implication of changes in parameters values is necessary in order to guide outbreak control decision. Next generation matrix approach was used to determine the basic reproduction number of SVEQHIFR Ebola epidemic model. In assessing the influence, direction, and strength of relationship parameters to Ebola basic reproduction number, 1000 simulations run for LHS/PRCC procedure was used. Positive or negative sensitivity indices of the threshold value to parameter changes indicate that control measure should be intensified in reversing or enhancing these indices. This information can gauge implementation of interventions strategies in the attempt to decelerate Ebola disease transmission.