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Seasonal drought pattern changes due to climate variability: Case study in Afghanistan

Qutbudin, Ishanch and Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi and Ahmad Sharafati, Ahmad Sharafati and Ahmed, Kamal and Al-Ansari, Nadhir and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Wang, Xiaojun (2019) Seasonal drought pattern changes due to climate variability: Case study in Afghanistan. Water, 11 (5). p. 1096. ISSN 2073-4441

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11051096


We assessed the changes in meteorological drought severity and drought return periods during cropping seasons in Afghanistan for the period of 1901 to 2010. The droughts in the country were analyzed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Global Precipitation Climatology Center rainfall and Climate Research Unit temperature data both at 0.5° resolutions were used for this purpose. Seasonal drought return periods were estimated using the values of the SPEI fitted with the best distribution function. Trends in climatic variables and SPEI were assessed using modified Mann–Kendal trend test, which has the ability to remove the influence of long-term persistence on trend significance. The study revealed increases in drought severity and frequency in Afghanistan over the study period. Temperature, which increased up to 0.14 °C/decade, was the major factor influencing the decreasing trend in the SPEI values in the northwest and southwest of the country during rice- and corn-growing seasons, whereas increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall were the cause of a decrease in SPEI during wheat-growing season. We concluded that temperature plays a more significant role in decreasing the SPEI values and, therefore, more severe droughts in the future are expected due to global warming.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:meteorological drought, climatevariability
Subjects:T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:Civil Engineering
ID Code:87578
Deposited By: Widya Wahid
Deposited On:30 Nov 2020 17:04
Last Modified:30 Nov 2020 17:04

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