Exploring the oil supply-demand shocks and stock market stabilities: Experience from OECD countries

Abstract

This paper explores the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and the stockmarket in 11 OECD countries using traditional cointegrationtest and look at the rolling window Granger causality effects with various predictive power contents running between the variables. Taking into account both world oil production and world oil prices in order to supervise for oil supply and oil demand shocks, strong evidence of the sensitivity of stock market returns to the oil priceshock specifications is found in several sub-periods. As for rolling window causality tests, it is found that the impact of oil price shocks substantially differs along the different countries and that the results also differ among the various oil shock specifications.The overall finding suggests that oil supply shocks have a negative effect on stock market returns in the net oil importing OECD countries. Indeed, the stock market returns are negatively impacted by oil demand shocks in the oil importing OECD countries and positively impactedby the oil exporting OECD countries. Furthermore, these results will give a dimension for future undertaking studies with varying empirical findings.