Delphi-AHP based methodology for selecting causal factors of marine transportation accidents

Abstract

The aim of this study is to establish the priorities (importance) of causal factors in causing accidents in marine transportation that handles hazardous materials (HAZMAT). Two methods were employed, which are the Delphi and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods. As part of the methods, ten professionals in marine safety in Malaysia (from the industries and academia) were selected to give their expert judgment on the prioritization of the causal factors based on the safety aspect of the HAZMAT marine transportation operation. From the study, 26 factors were pre-determined as a result of application of the Delphi method, which were then further categorized into three main aspects of environment, technical and management. The weightings of each aspect were calculated using the AHP method through Expert Choice 2000 software to determine the pair-wise comparison between aspects that were evaluated in contributing to the marine transportation accident. The integrated Delphi-AHP method as proposed in this study was found to be suitable in retrieving a more efficient decision making process among the top management in planning a comprehensive safety assessment for maritime shipping industries.