Prediction in ungauged river basin in the west coast of peninsular Malaysia using linear regression model

Abstract

A linear multiple regression based regionalization method has been proposed in this study to simulate streamflow in ungauged catchment in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Identification of unit Hydrographs And Component flows from Rainfall, Evapotranspiration and Streamflow (IHACRES) rainfall-runoff model was used to develop the relationship between model parameters and physical catchment descriptors of eight gauged catchments distributed over the west coast of peninsular Malaysia. The IHACRES model was calibrated and validated individually for each catchment with the available data for the time periods varying between three to sixteen years. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index was used as criteria to evaluate the model performance. As the relationships between the physical catchment descriptors and hydrologic response characteristics are not necessarily linear, different forms of transformations were performed in order to find the most appropriate relationship. Finally, the obtained regression equations were used for simulating stream discharge in Sg Layang catchment located in the south of peninsular Malaysia. The result of the regional model was compared with observed monthly stream flow data of the catchment to assess the ability of regional model. The obtained results revealed that the regional model was able to replicate the historical monthly average flow. However, the relationship between the catchment area and hydrologic response characteristics were not fully understood by regional model which emphasize the need of consideration of other dominant catchment factors for prediction in ungauged basin.