Modelling static fire hazard in a semi-arid region using frequency analysis

Abstract

Various fire hazard rating systems have been used by many countries at strategic and tactical levels for fire prevention and fire safety programs. Assigning subjective weight to parameters that cause fire hazard has been widely used to model wildland fire hazard. However, these methods are sensitive to experts' judgements because they are independent of any statistical approaches. Therefore, in the present study, we propose a wildland fire hazard method based on frequency analysis (i.e. a probability distribution model) to identify the locations of fire hazard in north-eastern Iran, which has frequent fire. The proposed methodology uses factors that do not change or change very slowly over time to identify static fire hazard areas, such as vegetation moisture, slope, aspect, elevation, distance from roads and proximity to settlements, as essential parameters. Several probability distributions are assigned to each factor to show the possibility of fire using non-linear regressions. The results show that approximately 86% of MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hot spot data are located truly in the high fire hazard areas as identified in the present study and the most significant contributing factor to fire in Golestan Province, Iran, is elevation. The present study also reveals that approximately 14% of the total study area (∼20368km2) has a fire hazard of 66%, which can be considered very high. Therefore, this area - located mostly in the central, west and north-east regions of Golestan Province - should be considered for an effective conservation strategy of wildland fire.