Kajian kawasan perubahan jenayah menggunakan teknik anggaran ketumpatan kernel dalam anjakan pemberat hasil bahagi

Abstract

Governments have installed elements of Monitoring Safe City (MSC) to reduce crime displacement and diffusion in crime targeted areas. The elements include closed-circuit televisions, security mirrors, bulk streets, separation of pedestrians and bike paths and barrier streets. Foregoing analysis on the effectiveness of MSC consists of three analyses which are Crime Experience Indicator (CEI), Crime Reduction Indicator (CRI) and Monitoring Safe City Element Coverage Area (MSCCA). CEI analysis does not measure control area coverage, CRI analysis does not measure the value of crime in the buffer area and the time intervals of research data set, while MSCCA analysis only calculates the percentage rate of MSC without considering the comparison results from pre and post installations within a target area. This research proposed that Weighted Displacement Quotient (WDQ) commonly used for analyzing crime displacement and diffusion be enhanced by applying Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) in the target area. This WDQKDE technique includes target area, buffer area, and control area as the three key factors identified before and after installation of MSC. Based on the technique, a research model consisting of pre-procession process, development of model, integration data and visualization of results onto Geography Information System (GIS) maps was developed. Results generated from the model would display crime displacement and diffusion based on MSC elements by using color cartography. Green indicates a positive value for diffusion whereas red indicates a negative value for crime displacement. If white appears, there is no effect after the installation of MSC. The proposed model can serve as a guide for related agencies to analyze whether installation and addition of MSC elements have any influence in the decision making for changing the location of crime and diffusion in a crime prone area