Application of road deterioration simulation model for prediciting initiation and progression of cracks on road pavement

Abstract

In order to be able to predict the life-cycle of road pavement, a model that is capable of predicting any changes of road pavement condition in future is needed. The model should consider the current condition, pavement strength, age characteristics, environment, incremental time and incremental traffic. The aim of this study is to investigate and to develop a simulation model that can predict road pavement deterioration for flexible pavement on rural single carriageway roads. Priority of the model is initiation, development and progression of cracking. The aim of the study can be achieved by developing a computer simulation model that can predict road deterioration and road performance. This research developed coefficients of each model that agree to local condition based on observed data that were collected for 1.5 years. The simulations show that in general model of vehicle arrival are Poisson distribution. In addition, it was discovered that the development of crack was not individual but there was a relationship between each type of crack. These models were able to predict progression of cracking with R²= 0.5925 to 0.8765 which were more appropriate than the existing model. The coefficients of crack initiation model were different than the existing models that were 5.7% to 20% for AMAP (Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Pavement), 2.8% to 16.2% for AMSB (Asphalt Mix on Stabilized Base) and 1.6% to 2.2% for AMGB (Asphalt Mix on Granular Base). While progression of cracking are 8% to 75% for AMAP (Asphalt Mix on Asphalt Pavement), 4% up to 16.6% for AMSB (Asphalt Mix on Stabilized Base), 0% to 25.6% for AMGB (Asphalt Mix on Granular Base). In addition, the cracking model can be used as guide for maintenance intervention criteria.