Oil fate and slick trajectory prediction for marine oil pollution control strategies

Abstract

The impact of oil pollution is significant and its effects can be seen in different marine related aspects including fisheries, tourism and costal industries. Hence, the choice of the most effective oil pollution combating strategy is very important to minimize the effect of oil spills on the environmental and socio-economic activities. An efficient strategy includes the prediction of oil fate and slick trajectory to determine which shoreline will be affected and which combating technique is most suitable. In this research, a model describing the selection of oil pollution combating strategy has been developed. Software simulations and mathematical relationships were used to predict the oil fate and slick trajectory. For oil fate, ADIOS2 program was used to predict evaporation, dispersion and change in viscosity processes and mathematical relationships were used to predict spreading and emulsification processes respectively. Slick trajectory calculator program was used to predict the movement of oil. A case study has been performed on a simulated oil pollution scenario off the South West coast of Johor, Malaysia. The type of oil was Arabian Heavy, Amoco with API 28 spilled at 103° 28' 50 E and 1° 07' 12 N. The model predicted that nine hours after the time of spill, the weathering processes such as spreading, evaporation, dispersion, emulsification and viscosity were 637748 m², 104 m³, 3.7 m³, 470 m³ and 60 cSt respectively and the trajectory with over all bearing of 26.3° towards a sensitive shoreline with Tanjung Pelepas Port, Tanjung Bin Power Plant and mangrove areas. The model proposed the use of the combination of oil pollution combating equipment including booms, skimmers, pumps, manual and motorized equipment, in addition to chemical dispersant and placement of such equipment. Using the selected strategy model predicted that the pollutant would be effectively controlled.