Zolkipli, Nurul Farhana (2009) Forecasting domestic tourism : application to Johor tourism data. Masters thesis, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Science.
|
PDF
112kB |
Abstract
Serious tourism forecasting spans over three decades. A number of tourism forecasters have noted that complex forecasting models are seldom more accurate in predicting the future than simple ones. Hence, in this study, it shows through a Johor tourism forecasting comparison using the naïve model, moving average and exponential smoothing. An approach to selecting the method appropriate to Johor tourism data is based on criteria which are Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Square Error (MSE). The naïve model, moving average and exponential smoothing are relatively simple to apply, requiring no more than a data series and a computer spreadsheet program. This study also explores the need of Tabu Search method in implying forecast. Tabu Search will be used to ensure the pattern of the studied data by searching the value of weighted constants. The confirmation is performed by Automated Computerized Forecasting (ACF) System.
Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
---|---|
Additional Information: | Thesis (Sarjana Sains (Matematik)) - Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 2009; Supervisor : Prof. Dr. Zuhaimy Ismail |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | industrial management, mathematical models |
Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
Divisions: | Science |
ID Code: | 12414 |
Deposited By: | Zalinda Shuratman |
Deposited On: | 01 Jun 2011 02:51 |
Last Modified: | 20 Sep 2017 07:09 |
Repository Staff Only: item control page