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Malware attack forecasting by using exponential smoothing

Abas, Mohd. Nizamuddin and A. Jalil, Siti Zura and Mohd. Aris, Siti Armiza (2022) Malware attack forecasting by using exponential smoothing. In: Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Electrical, Control and Computer Engineering InECCE2021, Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia, 23rd August. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 842 (NA). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, Singapore, pp. 819-831. ISBN 978-981168689-4

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-8690-0_72


One of the threats on digital environment is malicious software (malware). Malware can bring harm to computer system that have connection to the internet. Malware may disclose sensitive information such as password and brings economic losses. Predicting the malware attack is vital in supporting decision-making process to avoid further damage on computer systems. The main objective of this study is to develop computational model to predict quantity of malware attack and assess the performance of exponential smoothing in forecasting malware attack. There are two types of exponential smoothing forecasting model involve in this study which is single exponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing. The forecasting performance will be evaluated by using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Monthly malware detection data in one financial institution’s computer servers from November 2014 to August 2019 will be utilized in this research. The result from this study shows that single exponential smoothing produces 0.0015 of MSE, 0.4655 of MAE and 6.0158 of MAPE. Single Exponential Smoothing produces lower value of MSE, MAE and MAPE, compared to double exponential smoothing. Thus, single exponential smoothing gives a promising result in forecasting the malware attack.

Item Type:Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords:exponential smoothing, forecasting, malware attack
Subjects:Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.5-58.64 Information technology
Divisions:Razak School of Engineering and Advanced Technology
ID Code:100494
Deposited By: Yanti Mohd Shah
Deposited On:14 Apr 2023 10:15
Last Modified:14 Apr 2023 10:15

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