Applicability of the CA-Markov model in land-use/land cover change prediction for urban sprawling in Batticaloa Municipal Council, Sri Lanka

Abstract

Rapid urbanization is leading to sprawling development around the world today, which is becoming a concerning issue for researchers and planners. Urban sprawl depends on the dynamics of land use, mainly on the built-up growth in this area. The study aims to apply and test the applicability of the CA-Markov model in the land use/ land cover change prediction for urban sprawling in Batticaloa Municipal Council, Sri Lanka. The secondary data were used, which are Landsat images for years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The Supervised Maximum Likelihood classification, the Markovian transition estimate, and the CA-Markov chain analysis were employed with ArcGIS 10.6.1, IDRISI 17.0, and MS-Excel 2013. The result revealed that the existing and simulated maps for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 showed an almost equal probability of changes. The simulation for 2030 is credible for the future prediction, which showed that a significant estimate occurs. Therefore, the CA-Markov model is appropriate for land use/land cover predictions.