A Hybrid Wavelet-Arima model for standardized precipitation index drought forecasting

Abstract

This paper proposes A Hybrid Wavelet-Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (W-ARIMA) model to explore the ability of the hybrid model over an ARIMA model. It combines two methods, a Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and ARIMA model using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) drought data for forecasting drought modeling development. SPI data from January 1954 to December 2008 used was divided into two - (80%/20% for training/testing respectively). The results were compared with the conventional ARIMA model with Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Average Error (MAE) as an error measure. The results of the proposed method achieved the best forecasting performance.