The radiological assessment, hazard evaluation, and spatial distribution for a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident at baiji potential site

Abstract

Background: The safety assessment in site selection for a new nuclear power plant is an essential issue for human health. It could be improved by predicting the consequences for a hypothetical accident. This paper is contextual with the nuclear safety regarding the risk upon human health from the hazard constituted by the emission of radioactive material due to a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident. HYSPLIT model used and configured based on terrestrial and meteorological conditions for this purpose. Results: It presents an analysis of the time-series and spatial distribution for dispersed radioactive contaminants from a hypothetical accident at Baiji potential site. This is based on the geological and meteorological specifications of the potential site. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model configured to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of fission emissions, then assesses the public health consequences of a hypothetical nuclear accident. Results indicate that the total individual dose intake by the population living around the potential site from the hypothetical accident exceeded 1 Sv, greater than the allowed dose limits by International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The probability of cancer incidence at regions on directions of southeast to northeast along 30 km from the potential site was high (0.0378 to 0.00131) risk/person. However, the areas that laid on the west and south-west of the site recorded higher levels of influence compared to regions on other directions. Also, the reduction of exposure dose with the distance from the site presented. The north-direction regions from the Baiji site recorded a rapid reduction of exposure dose to become zero at 40 km distance. Conclusions: Finally, to minimize the radiological impacts on population, emergency procedures are required at the regions that laid on the west and south-west of the site. These countermeasure remedy actions should include evacuation, sheltering, ban the sale of local agriculture productions, and long-range resettlement of the population. Since the plume of radioactive contaminants did not arrive at the regions on east and northeast, 40 km away from Baiji site, these areas could be categorized as a support zone.