Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Institutional Repository

Pattern analysis of corona virus disease (COVID-19) - outbreak in Malaysia

Mohamed, Nur Syarafina and Ahmmad, Siti Nor Zawani and Aleng, Nor Afiqah and Saipan Saipol, Hafizah Farhah and Shaharuddin, Shazlyn Milleana (2020) Pattern analysis of corona virus disease (COVID-19) - outbreak in Malaysia. Journal of Advanced Research in Dynamical and Control Systems, 12 (6). pp. 1775-1782. ISSN 1943-023X

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Official URL: https://www.jardcs.org/abstract.php?id=5149


The ongoing Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak is now declared as the pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO). This disease began in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and is widely spread now all over the world. Progressively, Malaysia has been the leading country in Southeast Asia for this outbreak with cases more than 2000 as on 26th March 2020. This article highlights the analysis of the outbreak pattern which follows the exponential growth regression line. Data is collected daily for 66 days starting from the 1st case defined on 25th January 2020. Regression line is used because it can describe the relationship between predictors and the outcome within the datasets that can be used for prediction purposes. Fitting the real data to the graph, an equation which follows the exponential growth model is obtained. The calculation of the relative error between the exact and the approximate data shows that the pattern follows the exponential growth model as it is compared with the quadratic regression line. This analysis can be particularly beneficial for the health authorities in preparing immediate and effective strategies to flatten the curve. Malaysia government is currently working hard in flattening the curve by implementing Restricted Movement Order (RMO).

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:COVID-19, mathematical modelling, pandemic, regression, trend line
Subjects:H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Divisions:Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology
ID Code:92281
Deposited By: Yanti Mohd Shah
Deposited On:28 Sep 2021 07:43
Last Modified:28 Sep 2021 07:43

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