Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land transports in Malaysia: modelling and policy analysis

Abstract

Transportation sector is important to the economy and its rapid development has contributed significantly to the socioeconomic development of the country. The transportation sector in Malaysia accounts for approximately 35% of the total energy consumed nationally and produces nearly 50 million tonne of CO2 per year in 2015, second only to electricity power generation. Though shares only 0.3% of global GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions, Malaysia is second largest per capita GHG emitter among the group of ASEAN countries and the major concern lies in the ever increasing trends. The aim of this work was to perform dynamic quantitative emission analysis of Malaysian vehicle fleet until year 2040, primarily on land transports including both passenger and freight transports except train. Utilizing a System Dynamic approach using Powersim Studio®, several emission scenarios were modelled in compared to current scenario (baseline model). The baseline model was used to determine carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) reduction for different policy scenarios in compared to baseline scenario. The complex relationships between the various components in the transport system are reflected in the dynamic model considering the vehicle technology, legislation and drivers’ attitude. This work found that CO2 emission in 2040 can be reduced by up to 50%, compared to baseline scenario, without affecting the economy and vehicle demand. Carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides pollution can also be reduced by 75% and 93% respectively with implementation of several policies compared to baseline scenario.