Energy demand and GHG emissions by 2030: a scenario analysis using extended snapshot tool towards sustainable low carbon development in Pengerang

Abstract

Pengerang, Johor, Malaysia is to become at global centre of integrated petrochemical refinery industry under the Malaysia’s National Key Economic Area (NKEA) and will become the largest regional petroleum refinery and trading hub in South East Asia. In line with the national aims towards carbon neutrality, Pengerang is set to achieve as much as 50 % carbon emission reduction towards its Clean, Green, Safe and Smart Pengerang vision by 2030. This paper is performed based on the baseline results of the energy supply and demand scenario in Pengerang from base year 2010 until targeted year of 2030. The scenario is modelled using the Extended Snapshot (ExSS) tool by using the Kaya Identity equation (human population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) per capita and energy intensity). The data assumption for the model is based on best practice low carbon emissions port city such as Rotterdam. The model estimates about 691 % carbon emission increment from 2010 to 2030 without low carbon emissions countermeasures (CM) in Pengerang, due to expected rapid development lead by the petroleum refining and petrochemical industries in the area. Future renewable energy supply (e.g. biomass, biogas, solar) and demand is plugged into the model to portray the low carbon emissions scenario that Pengerang could establish by 2030. This paper concludes, Pengerang can potentially achieve as much as 50 % carbon emission reduction in 2030 CM scenario, through increased energy efficiency of industries and alternative energy resources application.