Bayesian analysis for assessing risks of rotating equipment and its financial loss

Abstract

The petrochemical industry is equipped with major and rotating equipment, such as storage tanks and pumps, to produce the required outputs. The equipment could pose a high level of risks should the organization failed to provide control and mitigation measures. Risk analysis is a conventional and practical technique in identifying hazards and assessing risks associated with equipment. The risk analysis can be integrated with the Bayes's theorem to assess risks of major and rotating equipment. Therefore, this paper presents the use of Bayesian analysis for assessing risks of rotating equipment and its financial loss, specifically in the petrochemical industry. The study begins with developing a cause-and-effect relationship using a Bayesian network. The probability of failure of equipment and its financial loss can be analyzed based on the Bayesian network. The cause-and-effect relationship could also reveal human factors contributing to the probability of failure of equipment. This paper focuses on an accident involving pumps during maintenance activity in the petrochemical plant. The human factors issues contributing to the accident and the financial loss are inadequate procedures and poor work processes.