A reliable approach for fixed offshore structures probability of failure determination

Abstract

The integrity of a structure is subjected to a combination of statistical and engineering design uncertainties that can remain flexible as long as the structure can alleviate the encountered load effectively. İn oil and gas industry, there are many methods used to determine the probability of failure (POF) but generally with specific constraint. Thus, this study is performed as a quantitative risk assessment, with the focus to establish an improved and reliable approach, to calculate POF value. In this paper, two (2) structural elements were selected and tested for non-linear analysis as the global approach and finite element analysis as the local approach, respectively. Reliable type of distribution was pre-determined, and the appropriate integral equation was applied and calculated based on load and strength condition. Result of the sum of load and strength distribution based on the used integral equation demonstrated notable confidence level in determining the new POF. This newly developed method will effectively assist the structural engineer in outlining action items as part of the organisation’s business risk management.