Forecasting spatial pattern of land use and land cover changes using cellular automata

Abstract

Land use and land cover changes predictions are two important aspects to be studied for a better understanding on dynamic landscape change and awareness on sustainable development. Geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing have been used in this research as it is considered as the most effective method in order to monitor the changes of land use and land cover (Deep, 2014). The aim of this research is to forecast land use in the year of 2020 by referring to the land cover changes between the year 1997 and 2008 using Cellular Automata (CA). The result will then be evaluated with the existing development planning land use of Perlis for 2020. The prediction of the CA model was successfully applied into this research by using modelling tools namely, Methods of Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE plugin in Quantum GIS). The validation result of the prediction shows 78% similarity with the existing Development Land Use Planning 2020. This demonstrated the validity of the model to be used for future prediction. In conclusion, based on the behavior of cells changes using CA method, it has proven to be a useful tool for government planners to observe the development pattern in this country and enable them to use land sources in better ways.