Spatiotemporal model for landscape ecological assessment in landscape planning

Abstract

Ecological landscape area is rich with biodiversity and ecosystem are two important factors that balance the serenity of the environment through its ecological function and services. However, landscape change especially rapid urbanization has led to extensive land use and land cover (LULC) transformation that degrades the ecological landscape area and ecosystem services. The limitation of integration analysis in LULC change with ecological interaction has caused detrimental impact on natural landscape area and environmental quality. Analysing the spatiotemporal characteristics of landscape changes and ecological response in a multidisciplinary research is necessary to extend the understanding of spatial change behaviour and ecological consequences. Thus, the aim of this research is to study the integration of spatiotemporal dimension of landscape change with ecological landscape sensitivity consideration in Iskandar Malaysia region (Johor Bahru). The spatiotemporal dimension of historical and future LULC change is analysed to identify the direction and characteristics of the landscape structure and function change. Logistic regression model, analytical hierarchical process, markov chain model and cellular automata were used to identify the spatiotemporal LULC change in the study area. A series of landscape matrices in landscape index at class and landscape levels were used to analyse the spatiotemporal dimension of the landscape change pattern. It includes measurement of the ecological integrity and function responses towards spatiotemporal landscape change by using Core Area Model. Satellite images of 1994, 2000, 2007 and 2013 were used to understand the historical landscape changes and as a basis for future projection. Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing were utilized to evaluate the temporal landscape characteristics and spatial pattern changes. The results indicate that rapid urbanization of Iskandar Malaysia region from 2007 to 2013 has substantially changed the structure and function of the ecological area. The urban area significantly increased from 8,031.6 hectares (3.84%) in 1994 to 42,972.94 (20.1%) in 2013, and expected to increase to 112,224.6 hectares (53.59%) in 2030. As a consequence, the natural ecological areas reduced from 55,201.77 hectares (26.37%) in 1994 to 19,011.5 hectares (9.08%) in 2013. Due to the landscape mosaic change, the core ecological areas are affected from 21,465.9 hectares (38%) reduced to 9,317.61 hectares (49%) and expected to further reduce at 8,416.71 hectares (41%) in 1994, 2013 and 2030, respectively. It shows the response of ecological condition in natural landscape areas towards the landscape changes which subsequently disturb the ecological values and services. As a conclusion, the findings of this research could provide decision makers with better understanding on the environmental consequences of the landscape changes. In addition, it contributes to enhancement of methods in multidisciplinary research and finally increases the capability of the process in adaptive management for the spatiotemporal landscape change.