The radiological and safety considerations for nuclear power plant siting in Iraq

Abstract

The consecutive shortages in electricity supply during the last 25 years in Iraq makes the review of the energy capabilities and policies extremely important. Long-range Energy Alternative and Planning (LEAP) model was used to estimate the demand for electricity and its corresponding environmental impact by 2040 setting 2011 as the base year. The demand for electricity is expected to increase more than twice that of the base year. Introducing 1 GW of electricity from nuclear power plant (NPP) starting from 2020 will reduce 8.1% of CO2 emissions due to the demand on electricity. Atmospheric dispersion models of Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), Consequences of Releases to the Environment: Assessment Methodology (PC-CREAM) and Environmental Radiation Dosimetry Software System (GENII) were used to study the dispersion profile and its corresponding radiological impact for radioactive releases from NPP at four nominated sites; Abbasiyah, Abu Dalaf, Baii and Mahzam during the normal and accidental operation. The air concentration and the ground deposition of radionuclides at Baiji and Mahzam nominated sites were lower than other sites. The annual effective dose equivalent (AEDE) in Baiji site was lower than other sites during normal operation, but this does not pose any significant radiological impact for all sites. The air concentrations and their corresponding AEDE due to the accidental operation of the NPP at Baiji and Abu Dalaf sites based on source term (ST); ST1 and ST4 accident scenarios were lower at Baiji site. Based on time series of spatial distribution of the radionuclide releases, the emergency planning zones were determined. Baiji and Samarra cities were categorized as plume zone as the AEDE exceeded 100 mSv and instant evacuation is required, while Tikrit and Balad cities were categorized as ingestion zones and north areas from the NPP as support zone. Predetermined protective action plans were proposed to avoid and mitigate potential exposure to the radioactive releases.