Optimal planning of hybrid power generation system towards low carbon development

Abstract

In Malaysia, the energy sector is identified as one of the major carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters. Electricity in Malaysia is primarily generated from coal, natural gas, diesel, oil and hydro. The government of Malaysia encourages power producers to shift towards the use of renewable energy (RE) and reduce their reliance on fossil fuels. There is a clear need for a systematic method to sustainably plan the fleet-wide electricity generation and capacity expansion towards fulfilling the forecasted electricity demand and simultaneously meet the emission reduction target. A comprehensive superstructure consisting o f all existing (i.e. Pulverized Coal (PC), Natural Gas Open Cycle (NGOC)) and new power generation technologies (i.e., Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC), nuclear, solar, biom ass and M unicipal Solid W aste (M SW )) was constructed at the early stage of model development in this study. Towards this end, three different models have been developed and implemented in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) as follows: 1) Single period model for electricity generation mix that is designed to satisfy the electricity demand until the year 2020 for Peninsular Malaysia, 2) Multi period model for selection o f power generation technology that is designed to satisfy the forecasted electricity demand from year 2012 to 2025 in Iskandar Malaysia (IM) and 3) Multi-period optimization model that is developed to determine the optimal location o f new RE generation stations to reduce transmission losses and transportation cost in IM. Options are made available by models 1 and 2 to switch the coal plants to natural gas power plants and to increase the use o f renewable energy in order to meet CO2 target and to minimize cost. Model 3 is capable o f predicting the cost-optimal generation capacity, type o f biomass-energy conversion technology and location for the construction and operation of new biomass power plants. The models can provide vital tools to assist the government in policy making.