Wavelet-based short-term load forecasting using optimized anfis

Abstract

This paper focuses on forecasting electric load consumption using optimized Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy inference System (ANFIS). It employs the use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to optimize ANFIS, with aim of improving its speed and accuracy. It determines the minimum error from the ANFIS error function and thus propagates it to the premise part. Wavelet transform was used to decompose the input variables using Daubechies 2 (db2). The purpose is to reduce outliers as small as possible in the forecasting data. The data was decomposed in to one approximation coefficients and three details coefficients. The combined Wavelet-PSO-ANFIS model was tested using weather and load data of Nova Scotia province. It was found that the model can perform more than Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimized ANFIS and traditional ANFIS, which is been optimized by Gradient Decent (GD). Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was used to measure the accuracy of the model. The model gives lower MAPE than the other two models, and is faster in terms of speed of convergence.