Spatial pattern of rainfall events:a background study to modeling and forecasting rainfall

Abstract

The study of extreme rainfall events and their spatial coverage is important in identifying areas with high and low extreme events. It has been widely known that extreme rainfall is responsible for major flash flood and landslide events that have caused significant loss of life and economic losses. Unfortunately, the dynamics of extreme rainfall events still received less concern. This study scrutinized the characteristics of extreme rainfall and their spatial coverage in Peninsular Malaysia using rain gauge data. Eight indices of climate extremes based on daily precipitation data defined and adopted by the Joint Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were calculated. The selected indices captured the precipitation intensity, the frequency and length of heavy rainfall events. The geostatistical method of Ordinary Kriging (OK) is applied to the indices calculated. The results from OK method give a pictorial representation of the structure of extreme rainfall spatial variability which helps in deriving rainfall patterns, quantifying rainfall amounts or help in identifying areas with high risk of extreme rainfall event. This result could provide to researchers and decision makers a case study area that needs adequate attention.