Usman, M. D. M. and Shaaban, Mohamed (2012) Risk evaluation of uncertainties in generation scheduling using Monte Carlo simulation. In: 2012 IEEE International Power Engineering and Optimization Conference, PEOCO 2012 - Conference Proceedings. IEEE, New York, USA, pp. 422-426. ISBN 978-146730661-4
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/PEOCO.2012.6230901
Abstract
The sheer physical size of integrated power systems, containing various generation technologies in a competitive market environment, could procreate uncertainties in system operation that challenge the capability to serve committed load demand to the full extent. In this paper, risk assessment of the uncertainties associated with system generation in the operation planning horizon is investigated. Probability models describing uncertainties in system generation and projected load demand are constructed. Using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), Loss of Load probability (LOLP) is calculated for a six-bus case study. The LOLP is further used to quantify the exact amount of lost load due to contemplated uncertainties. The proposed approach can be useful to operators to make decisions concerning uncertainties arising in the generation side of the system.
| Item Type: | Book Section |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Indexed by Scopus |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), power system operational planning, risk assessment |
| Subjects: | T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering |
| Divisions: | Electrical Engineering |
| ID Code: | 35819 |
| Deposited By: | Fazli Masari |
| Deposited On: | 04 Dec 2013 01:18 |
| Last Modified: | 04 Feb 2017 06:18 |
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