Demand forecasting: a review on qualitative methods and surveyed done by delphi technique

Abstract

Over the past decades a majority of tourism researchers have published many papers that reviewed demand forecasting methodologies. But most of them have concentrated on quantitative methods rather than qualitative methods and there is a huge gap in qualitative demand forecasting research. In this review, the authors have placed emphasizes on qualitative demand forecasting methods by using previous literature and new findings in recent years, specially published studies on tourism demand modeling and forecasting up to 2010. This paper tries to have a comprehensive look at Delphi method‟s definitions and examples conducted by different authors. The advantages and disadvantages of Delphi technique are considered and the accuracy of previous Delphi studies surveyed.The review also includes a clear view of qualitative demand methods comprising the Delphi Model, Judgment-Aided Model and Traditional Approaches.